I recall seeing a quote from Marvin Minsky that machine intelligence would surpass human intelligence in perhaps as little as three years. This was back about 1970 or thereabout.. I’ve since lost the book it was in, and can’t find any record of it in the web today unfortunately. The book (I’m fairly sure this was the book it was in) was named “The Digital Villain; notes on the numerology, parapsychology, and metaphysics of the computer”

Yeha sure it’ll replace alot of commands, but take over the keyboard, no way. You think im gonna be talkign dirty to my computer to send messages to my gf? LOL. It’ll be like Star Trek.. a combo deal.

Peace out

I actually prefer to type. Being a gamer, there are already ‘voice chat’ options available, but I find it annoying really. I prefer to just stick to the keyboard.

I have no doubt personally, my written communication skills are much better than my oral communications, maybe it’s the extra time you have when typing to polish off the concept you are trying to convey and the way you want to deliver it that are more of a benefit to me, can’t say. I recall when I was younger when computers were just starting to become ‘personal’ that one of the things I found most interesting was typing.

Although, voice recognition will have it’s place, I don’t really find it as desirable of an option as typing, generally.

Heck – even now where I work, the IT staff can always call each other, of course – but most choose to use Instant Messages. Perhaps for counter-intuitive reasons many people actually prefer to type. Or maybe it’s really just the convenience offered with a text based communication that, in many ways – at times actually beats oral communications. Just because something is quicker, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s better or more efficient. If so – why is email even amongst relatives and friends a very popular communication method, when they could just call on the phone?

All you smart dudes seem to be limiting yourself to the office. What about all those applications where a keyboard is not available. We are living in an ever more digital environment. Use your imagination. You can already talk to your phone and your Northstar system, soon you’ll be telling the toilet to flush!

Who would listen to Gates anyway, he and his company have managed to keep software at least 15 years behind where it would be if his dad had pulled out early and he had been shot off on the wall. It’s sad how much damage a few bad seeds, Gates, Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, etc, can do to this world in such a short time.

I doubt reguardless of the future that keyboards will ever be completely replaced. I am sure a lot of people will be uncomfortable speaking the IMs they want to send to their wife or gf and just in general especially when others can hear them. I think we need to drop speech recognition and just go to mind-to-computer interface to cut down the work even more for us lazy people.

A quick write up courtesy of the Iron Chef School Of Scientific Endeavor And Snacks (Thanks, Angela Gunn, I think…):

So it wasn’t long ago (Maybe fifteen months?) when Microsoft closed on the Voice Recognition software company, TellMe.

You have to hand it to them- the final product doesn’t look too shabby. Especially considering they’ve already executed on a go-to-market strategy with software (ResponsePoint), hardware vendors and also engaged a VAR channel.

Having acquired a mature and robust speech engine may help drive more product dev work in this area and replace/complement the keyboards.

I remain more interested in touchscreen application and OneNote.

So someone said something about the Surface Computer, and it seems like a niche product, hopefully it can really improve productivity. So from a product/branding perspective, it probably would have been better for Surface to debut with AT&T or Verizon in addition to TMobile. Why? Well, these carriers seem to have a customer base thats business focused, whereas TMo appears to focus on the value-conscientious customer, so Surface would probably have better day-to-day visibility to businesses who could afford a kiosk or want to implement a kiosk strategy. It’s the weekend and I’m too lazy to go research the numbers, but a few searches through some 10K filings of VZ or T may give insight to customer segments.

Anyways, enough rambling. Check out ResponsePoint-

http://www.microsoft.com/responsepoint/

Did you honestly just compare Bill Gates to Hitler, Lenin and Stalin? Are you really that childish?

Not to say speech recognition is useless: But I can type faster then I can talk. Honestly it would work best if used the same way as the mouse… a third input channel

Most of the people I know who attack speech recognition tried it five years ago or haven’t tried it at all.

I recently bought a popular voice recognition product and, after having stuck with it through the training phase, use it daily for everything from e-mail to writing blog entries. For me, dictating text using this software is now faster and more accurate than typing.

Like millions of people, I work in an office with a door and don’t disturb anyone when dictating.

Frankly, I can’t believe we’re still typing as much as we are when audio text alternatives exist that cost less than $200. I also can’t believe voice recognition isn’t built into hand-held devices such as PDAs.

Who the heck wants it…..touch is cool….and maybe some speech for somethings but in general…..ummm NO!

The next big thing won’t necesarily be total control over speech… we have to think in incremental stages and include the future steps in the plan… It won’t be just a keyboard and mouse… or just those with speech… what about the inclusion of contacts that track eye focus on a particular point on the screen… video game controls are around the corner that will make todays HUD look silly… stop complaining about what Bill says it’ll be and let’s really figure it out. The major point that his statements are making is that it will not be what it is today. Here is the quote that reminds me of this: “The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it.” – Mark Weiser (ubiquitous computing)

Why does anyone even listen to Gates’s ideas? He and Microsoft have done more to lower the average level of computer knowledge than anyone or anything else.

Cognotive Psychologists and Neuroscientists will back me up on this…

Visual processing and certain Actions are much faster then speach.
Speach takes up more brain activity then just about any other type of brain function, and is therefore slower.
Language can also be interpreted in multiple ways

The future will be in presenting us with MORE densely layered VISUAL information and allowing us to PHYSICALLY manipulate it.

I know this has all been said before….

Think of Tom Cruise in the movie, “The Minority Report”
Projectors, Layering images, 3D imaging, Holography, etc. coupled with Gesture technology is the true future
atleast from a speed of cognition perspective.

Keyboard AND mouse are not any longer necessary (and the speech activation I just leapfrogged until the tech catches up). A tool that has a form factor of a bic ballpoint pen is better- and more natural – but those with big bucks have inventory to dump and cheesy intermediate versions to hock on you already in the pipeline.

Earlier example of current tech being modified rather than the great tech leap occuring to leach out value and profit away from the purchaser:

“Since CCD, a 4 gig hard disk drive, and DV (digital video in any form, we all could have been using video cameras that do not tax our time (and wear out a hundred times faster) by using tape” I look back and 4 of the last 6 video cameras (one at a time) could have just been a hard disc, CCD, and the DV format”

I liken this article’s creator (WITH RESPECT) to the boy who cried “Sheep”- when Mr Gates cried “Wolf” at seeing the wolf take away a baby- (our cash). He is calling it from the top of the heap- and a real view we can only dream upon.

Pay attention. Yes, Man is going to be doing a lot of waving of hands in air for next X years- but voice will be back in under ten by far. (it is already here in most ways) (dragon speak naturally speaking program)

Interestingly, Mr Gates is the wolf also. Might want to pay attention to him.

Again, the Wii-mote and Johnny Lee (CMU) system works great-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5s5EvhHy7eQ

It uses, (I use) what looks like a bic ball point pen, and I now run my computer by looking DOWN at my desk-with the XP desktop superimposed. Nothing like a quantum leap forward by leaping backwards reciprocally (think about it- this is THE new system- nobody notices the return to Pen!!!!!)

Yes if you want this setup you need a modest low intensity projector- about 400 dollars- but if you want it on your computer monitor (that you are looking at now) that is free.

Typing? Just run the handicapped feature in XP accessibility features and voila! no keyboard on my desktop except a virtual “touch-sensitive” (on the wooden desktop) one that disappears the instant I do not need it.

In other words the keyboard no longer exists, except as light on the desktop.

Search parameters (youtube has a very clear demo of all three “new” technologies- VR desktop, Whiteboard, and finger tracking) Wii Lee Whiteboard VR or any combo.

Geez 42 dollars is a lot of money to replace a 60 dollar Natural Keyboard and a 50 dollar trackball. NOT>

C’mon America! Pull your head out and start DOING IT YOURSELF. Bill Gates is just as helpless as President Bush in aiding you with your problems with computing.

Stop blaming and criticising others when you could fix the problem(s) yourself!

I believe in all of you- get with it- I wanna (like Mr Lee says) “See some games and new applications” now that the hard part (holographic VR desktop, and whiteboard) is done and working perf.

Best to all. Rock On.

Mike

Paragraphing lost during HTML transition.

Rewritten:

Mr. Gates opens a door rather than letting you look in the window by making this announcement- and the point is missed- too easy to understand>??????

Keyboard AND mouse are not any longer necessary (and the speech activation I just leapfrogged until the tech catches up). A tool that has a form factor of a bic ballpoint pen is better- and more natural.

Those with big bucks have inventory to dump and cheesy intermediate versions to hock on you already in the pipeline.

Earlier example of current tech being modified rather than the great tech leap occuring to leach out value and profit away from the purchaser:

“Since CCD, a 4 gig hard disk drive, and DV (digital video in any form, we all could have been using video cameras that do not tax our time (and wear out a hundred times faster) by using tape” I look back and 4 of the last 6 video cameras (one at a time) could have just been a hard disc, CCD, and the DV format”

I liken this article’s creator (WITH RESPECT) to the boy who cried “Sheep”- when Mr Gates cried “Wolf” at seeing the wolf take away a baby- (our cash).

Mr Gates is who he is- in a Attitude worthy of attention.

He is calling it from the top of the heap in some tangible ways.- and a real view we can only dream upon. Pay attention.

Yes, Man is going to be doing a lot of waving of hands in air for next X years- but voice will be back in under ten by far. (Hands will get tired, and laziness being the mother of invention it will happen pronto) (it is already here in most ways) (dragon speak naturally speaking program)

Interestingly, Mr Gates is the wolf also. Might want to pay attention to him.

Again, the Wii-mote and Johnny Lee (CMU) system works great-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5s5EvhHy7eQ

It uses, (I use) what looks like a bic ball point pen for “mouse”, and I now run my computer by looking DOWN at my desk-with the XP desktop superimposed upon it.

Nothing like a quantum leap forward by leaping backwards reciprocally.

A great idea is like fire- it takes off- some reader out there may realize the immensity of this- and get the word out.

“A return to Pen and Paper” (virtual paper)

Yes, you need a modest low intensity projector- about 400 dollars- but on your existing computer screen it is free.

Typing? Just run the handicapped feature in XP accessibility features and voila! no keyboard on my desktop except a virtual “touch-sensitive” one

In other words the keyboard no longer exists, except as light on the desktop.

Geez 42 dollars is a lot of money to replace a 60 dollar Natural Keyboard and a 50 dollar trackball. NOT

Stop blaming and criticising others when you could fix the problem(s) yourself!

I believe in all of you- get with it.

Best to all.

Rock On.

Mike

Hi,

if you try to predict the future you can’t be so one-dimensional.
I believe that yes, speech or thought or something else more natural to human interactions will replace or supplement the keyboard. And it already happens, as others here point out.
The simplistic arguments against it remind me of stories they told about when the car or the computer or [name what] was first introduced. Technology changes society and vice versa.

Greetings, A.

“those will become a standard part of the interface.”

Who said anything about replacing the keyboard. and from what i read in this qoute, we are already there.

Thanks Bill, What’s next?

Remember that no words have certain meaning before they are defined by your intuition or by common rules. So, to make words meaningful in the way you expect, they can not be alone like the individual letters, number symbol on the keyboard, they must be in the form of defined way. It is kind of DEFINITION + WORD. I call them Codon, so on and so forth. By doing so, any keyboard will be able to TALK. So equivalently to say, you have a “talking keyborad” as a tool to express your thoughts without a necessary mechanical keyboard…..
Keep your imagination going…
or Visit my website for the idea called “Codonology”:
http://www.Codonology.com
Have a good future!
Hua Fang, MD

I’ve been hearing this as a tech teacher for years! My first response was, “The day I have to sit in a classroom with 32 kids speaking into microphones is the day I leave.” But the state, which is in bed with MS, pushes it. I remember about 5 years ago when the President of our state association did the entire program using SR. It was so full of typos it was HILARIOUS! Yeah, Steve, I’m sold! We all got out our red pens and started correcting it.

Will SR replace keyboards? I’m sure that at some point it will. In ten years? I don’t think so. It’s still very buggy. Keyboards have a lot of benefits; I can type without advertising to anyone within earshot what I’m doing, I can multitask (watching TV and typing right now) without disturbing others, keyboards are MUCH more accurate (if you’re an accurate typist), and some of us can type faster than we can dictate. I see SR in the next ten years as more of a quality add-on to a keyboard than a realistic replacement.

Let’s assume speech recognition is perfect – that the computer can understand every word spoken. There is still the problem of figuring out what the person means.

We want computers to understand speech, but the grail is understanding natural speech, not carefully worded commands. We are getting pretty good at recognition. Understanding natural speech is a different problem and is the real trick. That’s the thing to get working on now.

News Flash: Man incorrectly predicts future!

News Flash: Bread now sliced too!

Welp that about summarizes this entire story.

Wrong link, here’s the actual one-
http://store.digium.com/productview.php?product_code=8ASTLUMSTART

I know that I can’t reliably predict the future, and I honestly do have an opinion about this. However, it’s not that important.

One fact I can reliably state is this:

I will freakin’ kill myself if everyone in my office started talking to their computer. I can’t get them to shut up without talking to their computer (and some of them do so anyway). Pretty please, Mr. Gates, help me keep my sanity by not giving every idiot in the world an audible voice.

Thanks,
~Brian, whose keyboard will not be replaced by voice recognition software for too many reasons to state.

Of course the keyboard will dissapear. An earlier comment stated the disappearance of the slide rule as a technology which has all but vanished. What about clubs? Clubs for bashing things? You know – cavemen clubs. They’re use has almost completely expired in this modern world (exluding baseball players).

If we consider the evolution of man, the evoluion of man’s machines, and the evolution of man’s relationship with the machines, I think their rate of evolution would increase in the same order. And if that carries on forever then of course keyboards will disappear, then screens will disappear, then speech input will disappear. Eventually, the machines themselves will disappear from our perception, and our thoughts, desires, wishes and wildest dreams will control our surroundings.

On the paths of these lines of evolution, there will be thousands of intermediate stages, and we’re on one where there happens to be less clubs and more keyboards. Sure, there’ll be people who hang on to past technologies for resons other than technological advancement, 4-track musicians, vynl record collectors, screen printers, baseball players, but chores will disappear. Chores now handled by the machines – washing dishes, feeding the fire, finding food mental calculations – they’re almost all gone.
It’s inevitable keyboards will disappear, I’d be very surprised if a suitable substitute isn’t found within the next few decades.

And I wish they’d hurry up, this took me bloody ages.

Does anyone know CPR? Your going to need it if you pry the keyboard from me!

While it may be possible…

From the feelings I’ve seem on it so far – it seems most people don’t really care for it. And above everything else, that will be the main determining factor.

Personally, I remember trying ‘voice recognition’ software like 10 years ago. It wasn’t just the pain of configuration that made it undesirable, but the fact that it did depend on speech. It’s been around for a while already, really.

I really don’t want to get up early on the weekends, go posting on blogs, forums, or whatever and have to talk. Nor do I really feel up to talking physically at work right now. Between the phone and everything else in the ‘real world’, mostly I just don’t feel up to physically talking more. Especially to a computer.

I’ll keep the keyboard and mouse as long as I can… If it comes to me shelling out more $$$ for ‘voice recognition’ they can forget it! lol

..using voice recognition software one 486 in Windows 98 back ten years ago. I thought it was awesome. But then I lost the software and hadn’t re-gotten it.
While it was fun, it wasn’t always practical. I lost privacy when using it, as anyone who could hear me knew what I was doing. Most people, including me change their tones when their mood changes and that would be annoying.
And actually, there were many things where it really was just faster with the mouse or keyboard.
The only place I see voice recognition coming in is security and document writing. Its not really too practical past all that.
It wouldn’t be much help with graphic artists, it wouldn’t be worth anything to gamers, etc..
It has a future in security, document writing and stuff that isn’t a part of the PC (cell-phones, PDAs, etc..)