Are Newspaper Troubles Just Cyclical Rather Than Fundamental?

from the could-be-wishful-thining dept

While it's been quite natural for many folks to talk about the troubles facing the newspaper industry, it is worth noting that the newspaper business has remained quite profitable over the years. That, combined with a few other factors, has an analyst at Credit Suisse saying that the newspaper business is facing a cyclical slump, rather than as the result of a fundamental problem in the business. Thus, the analyst claims, the business should bounce back, perhaps as soon as towards the end of 2008. One factor in his argument is that troubles in the industry are due to the slump in real estate advertising, and newspaper fortunes should pick up as the real estate market begins to turnaround. While it does seem like pessimism over the newspaper business is overblown, this report is not particularly convincing. First of all, the downturn in newspaper stocks seems to have predated the real estate crisis by quite a large amount -- suggesting that the real estate troubles are only likely to exacerbate other problems. Furthermore, while the report does highlight how newspapers need to become more digitally focused, it's really not as simple as just "going digital." As we've seen time and time again, many newspapers have struggled with the transition, because they still view themselves as newspapers rather than news organizations, and they still seem to take a rather elitist view of themselves as gatekeepers, rather than as facilitators, helping people uncover what's important to them, rather than what the gatekeepers think is newsworthy. So, while we're hopeful that newspapers will figure it out, this particular report doesn't provide much support for the idea that newspapers are managing the shift well.

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